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You mentioned demand. You didn't mention supply anywhere... I know because I ctrl+F searched it.
Assuming the elimination of duping, Blizzard has 100% control over the supply. Therefore, everything you said is ultimately pointless.
Nothing can "flood the market" unless Blizzard allows it. It is not inevitable that every rare item will become commonplace, at least not within the lifespan of this game.
Edit: Also,
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So what we're now faced with, is the issue of items being too readily available, and I am 100% certain they will be. There is no incentive to salvage a great find for mats when that item can be sold for money, I don't care how much Blizzard thinks this will be the case. A nice $20 bill in the pocket of the average player is more important to them than leveling up their artisans quicker. The best items WILL flood the market in a matter of months.
You're not very good at economics. If any items were to "flood the market," don't you think their value will go down to next to nothing? Suddenly that $20 will be $1.|||Quote:
You're not very good at economics. If any items were to "flood the market," don't you think their value will go down to next to nothing? Suddenly that $20 will be $1.
You don't even have to be good at economics just turn on the TV and listen about home prices around the country to understand what happens when there is too much of something.
|||Quote:You mentioned demand. You didn't mention supply anywhere... I know because I ctrl+F searched it.
Assuming the elimination of duping, Blizzard has 100% control over the supply. Therefore, everything you said is ultimately pointless.
Nothing can "flood the market" unless Blizzard allows it. It is not inevitable that every rare item will become commonplace, at least not within the lifespan of this game.
Edit: Also,
You're not very good at economics. If any items were to "flood the market," don't you think their value will go down to next to nothing? Suddenly that $20 will be $1.
Sigh.
Supply is a given variable. A variable that, by the definition of existing in a game that is not SOLELY multiplayer, is ALWAYS high enough to be obtained regularly when using the entire collective playerbase as a model for rarity. Blizzard is not going to make an item SO rare that you wouldn't see it drop in a lifetime of 24/7 solo play. That is what you are proposing by insisting that items will be rare enough to not flood a market that consists of millions of players.
If an item is so rare that it is almost never seen on the AH, that means that its chances of dropping are literally 1 in several billion or worse. If you have 1 million players killing 1000 monsters weekly, that is already a billion potential drops. This kind of rarity would literally FORCE every single player to purchase items just so they can beat the game, assuming it isn't EXTREMELY easy all the way through inferno.
I mean sure, there might not be tons of "perfectly rolled" rares flooding the market at all times, but you can bet there will be a decent selection to chose from always. It is absolutely inevitable that top quality items, in general, will flood the marketplace. Have you bothered to take into consideration the absurd number of pure "farmers" that will exist upon release? These people no longer have to subvert the law of in game goods for sale since it is now welcomed and encouraged. You are going to see TONS of people playing just for the purpose of selling.
If Blizzard were to find that too many awesome items were available for purchase, and they made them more rare, then you would be left with the first scenario I described.
As far as the value of flooded items goes. You are absolutely right, the value of any item with a greater supply than it has demand is most certainly doomed to drop. The $20 figure I used wasn't meant to represent ANYTHING other than a varying amount of potential cash going into a gamer's pocket instead of added power to their character.
It's all a matter of relativity. Of course if you see 500 of the same item, its value is going to be low, but that's only assuming that high end drops of every kind are easily and regularly obtainable. I don't think Blizzard is stupid enough to make getting awesome loot THAT easy. I think what you will more than likely be faced with, is a healthy selection of top end gear to chose from at a manageable price, with only the perfectly rolled rares asking for big bucks.
So my example still stands, gamer Bob gets a piece of gear rated an 8 out of 10. He wants it for himself, but gear of that kind is going for $10-$30 on the AH right now, so Bob lists it. There might be 50 other items like it on the AH, but at the same time, there's several hundred thousand people with credit cards in hand ready to pick up a nice piece of loot for a modest fee.
The point is that it becomes easy to obtain something that is supposed to be difficult to obtain, no matter how you look at it. And as I said, if Blizzard were to "control" the market by making some items SUPER ULTRA MEGA rare, then they would be SO valuable on the AH that you probably wouldn't see them anywhere else lol. I'm talking hundreds of dollars, if not more. Then of course, you run into the issue of player never getting to deck themselves out in the best loot.
You're going to see a lot of players having to make the constant decision of whether this awesome piece of loot would look better on them, or in their bank accounts.|||Quote:
That's absurd. You're saying that there is absolutely no degree of rarity, mathematically speaking, which will prevent every item from flooding the market and becoming readily available?
Now don't put words in my mouth. "Readily available" does not equate to "flooding the market". Notice I said "for the right price", meaning I acknowledge that there will obviously be a degree or rarity, "mathematically speaking, derp", but that the rarer items might cost a little bit more. But yes, I do believe that most/all (either way I think it will have an impact) items in DIII will be available in the RMAH..Isn't that the point of the AH? So, since you clearly couldn't comprehend what I wrote, I will reiterate that for you. Yes, I agree with the OP that the availability of these items could probably lead to a high player turnover. My opinion. That is all.
|||One more thing I want to add.Have you ever tried to buy success? I mean REAL success. It is a concept that doesn't exist in real life, and can ONLY exist within a virtual world. It doesn't exist because it isn't possible in terms. Obviously you can buy things to help you obtain success, but it is always the work of your mind that will conquer it in the end.
Lets use an analogy. Lets say a God presents himself one day to the whole world. He offers the human race the ability to buy achievement through means of money. So now, all you have to do is offer that God some money, and he'll conjure up a magnificent building you hoped to erect someday through your own hard work and intelligent mind. Want to run your own fortune 500 company? No problem, it's expensive, but this God can make it happen. Except, why even bother owning it if all you are going to spend the money you make from it on more achievements that you didn't actually accomplish yourself, or on goods that you haven't earned? Why would anyone chose to live this way? If the purpose of life is to achieve, why give incentive to bypass it?
This is essentially what is happening. Achievement can be bought because the God of Diablo 3 has allowed it. Sure someone might say, "what about the kid who saved up money from his job for a month so he could buy a really awesome sword?". Honestly, that kid will probably LOVE running around and killing stuff with that sword. He worked for it, and he earned it one way or another. The problem, is with people who don't consider these types of purchases as large investments. That's part of the reason I say it's a matter of relativity. $20 is nothing to a LOT of people. The fact that it's nothing, means that whatever is purchased with it is not of great personal value, especially if there are substitute goods to be had. This is where the game takes a sudden nosedive in fun.
Yes, the obvious solution is to just not use it, and I, personally, will have to see how everything plays out before I make that decision. But the fact of the matter is, there is just too much damn incentive TO use it, whether it's selling or buying, and that is the fundamental flaw in all of this. The system has the potential to work against itself. It may perpetuate failure in the long run. We'll see.|||Quote:
It is essentially a shortcut. And just as shortcuts through life are not rewarded with lasting joy, the same is held for achievements within a game.
I wish more people understood this. Including, apparently, Blizzard.
Great post, Gosukusan.|||Quote:
Sigh.
Supply is a given variable. A variable that, by the definition of existing in a game that is not SOLELY multiplayer, is ALWAYS high enough to be obtained regularly when using the entire collective playerbase as a model for rarity. Blizzard is not going to make an item SO rare that you wouldn't see it drop in a lifetime of 24/7 solo play. That is what you are proposing by insisting that items will be rare enough to not flood a market that consists of millions of players.
If an item is so rare that it is almost never seen on the AH, that means that its chances of dropping are literally 1 in several billion or worse. If you have 1 million players killing 1000 monsters weekly, that is already a billion potential drops. This kind of rarity would literally FORCE every single player to purchase items just so they can beat the game, assuming it isn't EXTREMELY easy all the way through inferno.
If you had much experience in D2, you wouldn't be posting this stuff, there were plenty of items that were so rare that many people never saw one drop, even in multiplayer games. I had multiple sorcs botting pindle 24x7 for entire ladder seasons in d2 and never saw more than 1 cham, 1 vex, some jahs maybe. I would go weeks without seeing some uniques twice.
On your second paragraph in my quote, wtf does item rarity have to do with game difficulty, just because the very best is super rare dosn't mean there are not suitable alternatives that are more common. People will not be forced to do anything, and even if the game was impossible to play withour purchasing gear that would also mean that people wouldn't be able to aquire that gear in the first place.|||Quote:
If you had much experience in D2, you wouldn't be posting this stuff, there were plenty of items that were so rare that many people never saw one drop, even in multiplayer games. I had multiple sorcs botting pindle 24x7 for entire ladder seasons in d2 and never saw more than 1 cham, 1 vex, some jahs maybe. I would go weeks without seeing some uniques twice.
On your second paragraph in my quote, wtf does item rarity have to do with game difficulty, just because the very best is super rare dosn't mean there are not suitable alternatives that are more common. People will not be forced to do anything, and even if the game was impossible to play withour purchasing gear that would also mean that people wouldn't be able to aquire that gear in the first place.
I never said that some items wouldn't be extremely rare. My point is that even the rarest of items will be readily available on the AH simply because of the sheer number of players that will exist (including the enormous number of sure-to-exist farmers). Unless Blizzard were to make the top quality items practically non-existent even among the entire collective playerbase, you can bet there will be plenty on the AH. You can't compare this to D2, the playerbase is going to be infinitely larger, and there will be more Chinese farmers than you can count on a supercomputer.
My comment on game difficulty and the need to purchase items is completely hypothetical and unrealistic. It assumes that Blizzard takes the approach of making all the high quality items virtually non-existent, which they will not do. Of course there are going to be suitable alternatives (substitute goods). But anything that a player considers suitable for a substitute comes with attributing value to it, which in turn, gives a certain relative incentive to list it for money instead of equipping it.
"People will not be forced to do anything, and even if the game was impossible to play withour purchasing gear that would also mean that people wouldn't be able to aquire that gear in the first plac"
Again, hypothetical and unrealistic and also an infinite negative. It's reason is based on the premise that either the game will be impossible to progress through from the very start, or the difficulty curve will be insane at certain intervals in the game.|||Quote:
My point is that even the rarest of items will be readily available on the AH simply because of the sheer number of players that will exist.
Since the AH isn't actually generating items, merely redistributing them, the average player will have roughly the same quality of items as someone playing single player. If the two extreme ends of the spectrum want to trade awesome items for large amounts of real money, that doesn't really affect the player base as a whole.|||Quote:
it is in Blizzard's best intere$t to make sure the best items drop because those items are going to make them the most money off the RMAH. You actually think they are going to make it that difficult to get the best items ? Muahahaha, now that is funny!
Just wondering if you'd elaborate on how these "best items" will make Blizzard the most money, since with a flat fee, Blizzard makes the same off a Windforce as a, a...crude sash!
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